What If? Mock Draft Scenarios: Early WR run leaves Cowboys R1 options

One of the things that gets missed in the build up to the annual NFL draft, is just how much game theory is applied to the process. At its core, the draft is a sequential exercise with a ton of missing information. Teams are looking to augment their roster through a multitude of ways, while having no idea what pool of talent will be available to them when their turn comes, nor knowledge of how well the prospect will perform. It’s an attempt to balance cap efficiency based on positional value, trade pick value, and evaluations, all while having to guess what conclusions the competition has reached.

So while draftniks spend their spring months running mock draft simulations, NFL teams are going through every single scenario that could emerge, and they are incorporating the likelihoods into how they’ll approach their Big Boards. For the Dallas Cowboys, this is an even bigger task in 2026 as the club has two first-round picks, No. 12 and No. 20.

Here, we’ll try to emulate a bit of that. In our What If? series, we’ll look at various scenarios we believe could face the Cowboys once the draft rolls around at the end of April.

In Version 1.0: We’ll look at the following draft-beginning scenario; an early run on wide receivers leaves several impact players from the top of the Cowboys’ draft board. At current, we have zero clue how the Cowboys’ draft board will fall, or how they prioritize position groups. Assumptions will have to be made there.

Assumed First 8 Picks of 2026 NFL Draft

• 1.1: Las Vegas Raiders | QB Fernando Mendoza, Indiana
• 1.2: New York Jets | LB Arvel Reese, Ohio State
• 1.3: Arizona Cardinals | OT Francis Mauigoa, Miami
• 1.4: Tennessee Titans | Edge David Bailey, Texas Tech
• 1.5: NY Giants | CB Mansoor Delane, LSU
• 1.6: Cleveland Browns | WR Carnell Tate, Ohio State
• TRADE ALERT
• 1.7: Los Angeles Rams | WR Jordan Tyson, Arizona State
• 1.8: New Orleans Saints | WR Mekhi Lemon, USC

Things got interesting thanks to the Washington Commanders‘ desire to bail from No. 7 to acquire draft capital. They currently don’t have a second-round pick. The Rams want to be a year early, rather than a year late, to find Puka Nacua a long-term partner in crime, so they pony up to move from No. 13 to No. 7.

• LAR send 1.13, 2.61, 3.93 for WAS 1.7, 4.145

With the Saints taking the third-straight WR off the board, the Kansas City Chiefs could arrive on the clock looking to bail. They, in our minds, want to add another weapon to the fold, but the options they’d consider at No. 9 are now gone. The other WRs aren’t Top-10 material, and the organization may feel this is far too rich for the top RB or top TE.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys are sitting at No. 12 loving what they see thus far. Only three players on their wishlist have been snatched off the board already. Here’s the assumed Cowboys board we’re operating with.

1. Edge David Bailey, Texas Tech
2. Safety Caleb Downs, Ohio State
3. Edge Ruben Bain, Miami
4. LB Arvel Reese, Ohio State
5. LB Sonny Styles, Ohio State
6. RB Jeremiah Love, Notre Dame
7. CB Mansoor Delane, LSU
8. CB Aveion Terrell, Clemson

Only Bailey and Delane are gone from their top eight, leaving six candidates they’d be more than happy to walk away with instead of bailing from the pick.

But trading back isn’t the only manuever Dallas could pull. Here, Dallas could put out a trade feeler to see if KC bites.

Skinny Trade Up Scenario: 1.12, 2027 3rd-Round Pick for 1.9

The trade value points match, but this doesn’t make much sense from the Chiefs’ perspective, moving back to get an additional Day 2 pick next year.

Big Trade Up Scenario 1: 1.12, 1.20, 5.150 for 1.9, 2.40, 3.74

This trade is a 11.4-point differential on the Jimmy Johnson value chart, in favor of KC. The Chiefs could agree to these terms.

If the Cowboys traded up to No. 9, who would you select here?

Bains has the most positional value of the broup, followed by Terrell. If the Cowboys 10 Draft Commandments hold true this year, the Cowboys will be looking to snare a player they felt was the best in their position for the entire draft class. That leaves safety Caleb Downs and RB Jeremiah Love.

To guarantee one of them makes it to Dallas, they’d have to give up the idea of having two top-20 picks. Is that the best strategy in this class? Many feel there isn’t much talent difference between the 20th-ranked and 50th-ranked players this year. If Dallas feels that way, the big trade with KC seems wisest to grab the preferred player.

Stay put and pick, but who is left?

The other option is to not give up the 20th pick, stay put at No. 12 and just let the board fall as it may, risking losing all three of the believed prime remaining prospects.

• 1.9: Kansas City Chiefs | Edge Ruben Bain, Miami
• 1.10: Cincinnati Bengals | Safety Caleb Downs, Ohio State
• 1.11: Miami Dolphins | CB Jermod McCoy, Tennessee

With Bain and Downs off the board, the Cowboys are left with the RB Love, the LB Styles and the CB Terrell.

Would you pick one of these three remaining players, and if so, who?

If you’re willing to trade back, what are the limits to how far back would you drop? Would you insist on staying in the Top 20? If a team was willing to part with a 2027 first-round pick, would you be willing to go all the way back to No. 30? Leave the first round?

With hindsight being 20/20, here’s what we would have done if we were in charge of the Cowboys’ War Room:

1. Trade up. Select S Caleb Downs.
2. Trade back.
3. Stay put. Select LB Sonny Styles.

This article originally appeared on Cowboys Wire: What should Cowboys do if early WR run leaves this draft board?