Roman Anthony Stat Projections For 2026: What Red Sox Fans Should Expect From Boston’s Rising Star originally appeared on NESN.
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Roman Anthony hype is no longer just prospect hype. That part is over. The Red Sox saw him hit .292 with an .859 OPS in 71 games as a rookie in 2025, and now Boston is lining him up to set the tone as its leadoff hitter. That is a big job for a 21-year-old, but Anthony already looks built for it.
So what should Red Sox fans realistically expect in 2026? The fun answer is a star turn. The smarter answer is that Anthony does not need to become an MVP candidate overnight to have a huge season for Boston. If he lands somewhere between the major projection systems, the Red Sox could be looking at one of the better young outfield seasons in the American League.
A realistic 2026 projection looks pretty exciting already
Feb 28, 2025; Clearwater, Florida, USA; Boston Red Sox outfielder Roman Anthony (48) is congratulated after he scored a run against the Philadelphia Phillies during the third inning at BayCare Ballpark. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images
The two public projection ranges give a strong starting point. Steamer has Anthony at 15 home runs, 72 runs, 52 RBIs, eight steals and a .264/.365/.438 slash in 111 games. ZiPS is even more bullish, projecting 20 homers, 93 runs, 76 RBIs, eight steals and a .266/.370/.448 line in 140 games. Both systems land him at a 123-124 wRC+, which basically says the bat should already be well above league average.
A fair middle-ground projection for Anthony in 2026 looks something like this:
- .270 batting average
- .370 OBP
- 18 to 22 home runs
- 80 to 90 runs
- 70 to 75 RBIs
- 8 to 10 steals
That is not a reckless forecast. It is a pretty logical one when you stack his rookie production against the underlying quality of contact. In 2025, Anthony posted a 94.5 mph average exit velocity, a 60.3 percent hard-hit rate, a 15.5 percent barrel rate and a .372 expected wOBA. Those are pretty promising numbers.
The most encouraging part might be that there is still room for more power. MLB’s rookie breakdown noted Anthony had a 49.4 percent airball rate, six points below league average, yet still produced that 15.5 percent barrel rate. He was the only MLB hitter with an airball rate under 50 percent and a barrel rate above 13 percent, a minimum of 100 batted balls. If he lifts the ball a little more in year two, the home-run total could jump without him needing to overhaul anything else.
Why the WBC and spring matter to this forecast
Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
Anthony did not just show back up at camp as the young guy to watch. He carried momentum in with him.
In the 2026 World Baseball Classic, Anthony hit .280/.400/.520 with two homers and seven RBIs for Team USA across seven games. Then he followed that with a .300 spring average in 30 at-bats for Boston. The spring OPS was only .715, so this was not some ridiculously loud camp, but that is kind of the point. He did not need one. He looked comfortable, in rhythm and ready for everyday work.
That matters because Anthony is not trying to crash the roster anymore. He is trying to anchor it. Boston already views him as its likely leadoff man, which means his on-base skill becomes one of the most important traits in the lineup. And that skill looks very real: he walked 13.2 percent of the time as a rookie and still did damage when pitchers challenged him.
What those numbers would mean for the Red Sox
If Anthony hits that middle-ground projection, something like .270 with a .370 OBP and around 20 homers, the Red Sox are not just getting a nice second-year player. They are getting lineup-shaping production.
For one thing, it would give Boston a legitimate table-setter with real power. A leadoff hitter who gets on base that often and still threatens 20 homers changes the way the lineup works. It creates more run-scoring traffic, gives the middle of the order more RBI chances and makes it harder for pitchers to cruise through the top third of the lineup.
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It would also mean the Red Sox found a true cornerstone. Even the conservative Steamer line pegs Anthony as a 2.5-WAR player. For a 21-year-old in his first full season, that is a massive deal. That is how you go from promising future talk to this guy being part of the reason Boston can seriously push people in the AL East this season.
And honestly, that is why Anthony is such an easy player to dream on at the moment. The projections are already strong. The WBC and spring both reinforced the idea that the stage is not too big for him.
If he hits the numbers sitting in front of him, the Red Sox will have a star who starts changing games before the lineup even gets to its second hitter.