If you’re looking for real NFL Conference Championship betting predictions for moneyline, over/under and spread, you’re in the right spot.
FTN’s NFL simulation model ran 10,000 simulations for each Conference Championship matchup, projecting win probabilities, moneyline edges and upset likelihoods so you know where the value actually is.
With that, let’s dive into this week’s games and see what the FTN betting model is projecting.
New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos
Best Edge: Broncos +4.5
The Patriots head to Denver as significant favorites in this matchup, largely due to the quarterback position. After leading the Broncos to a win over the Bills, Bo Nix and Denver received devastating news, as Nix will require ankle surgery, abruptly and unexpectedly ending his season.
If the Broncos are going to pull off the upset this week and reach the Super Bowl, it will have to be on the backs of their defense. Denver has been one of the league’s most dominant defensive units, and that showed up in the numbers this season. The Broncos ranked fifth in defensive DVOA, were stout against both the pass and the run, and excelled at generating pressure. They finished second in pressure rate and led the NFL with 68 sacks as a team.
Drake Maye ranked fourth in the NFL in EPA per dropback against pressure during the regular season, but that success has not carried over to the playoffs. Through two postseason games, Maye ranks dead last among playoff quarterbacks in EPA per dropback when pressured.
In addition to generating pressure, Denver plays man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL. Maye was excellent against man coverage during the regular season, leading the league at 9.0 yards per attempt while ranking third in EPA per dropback. However, through two playoff games, he’s averaging just 5.2 yards per attempt against man, and his 31.6% success rate versus man coverage ranks dead last among quarterbacks with at least two playoff starts. If Maye plays to his regular-season level, the Patriots are well positioned to beat a strong Denver defense, but he’ll need to elevate his postseason performance.
Projecting the other side of the ball is more difficult. Jarrett Stidham gets the start in place of Nix and hasn’t started a game since 2023. While he didn’t play poorly in those appearances, they came in the final two weeks of the regular season when Denver had already been eliminated.
The Patriots weren’t a strong defensive team during the regular season, but they’ve dominated through two weeks of the playoffs. The most likely outcome is that New England wins the battle on that side of the ball, leaving it up to the Broncos defense to keep the game close.
We see this as a competitive matchup, and while the Patriots are the more likely team to win, we like the margin to stay under a field goal.
Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks
Best Edge: Rams +2.5
With all due respect to Patriots-Broncos, this is the game of the week. By DVOA, the Rams and Seahawks posted the two best regular seasons in the league, and the gap between them and the rest of the field was massive. Seattle finished with a 41.3% DVOA and Los Angeles was close behind at 39.9%, while the next closest team, the Detroit Lions, checked in at just 21.5%. The winner of this game will be the favorite to win the Super Bowl.
The Rams and Seahawks split their two regular-season meetings, with both games coming down to the wire. In the first matchup, Sam Darnold threw four interceptions, but he rebounded to lead a comeback victory in Week 16. Still, Darnold has thrown six interceptions against the Rams in two games this season, and ball security will be critical if Seattle is going to advance. Turnovers weren’t an issue for Darnold last week, but the Rams present a far more imposing challenge than the 49ers. Los Angeles fielded one of the league’s most opportunistic pass defenses, ranking fourth in pass DVOA despite allowing the 13th-most passing yards. That production was driven by pressure and takeaways: the Rams intercepted 16 passes, generated pressure at a top-10 rate, and finished with the seventh-most sacks in the NFL. If Los Angeles can speed up Darnold and force turnovers, they have a clear path to pulling off the upset.
The other side of the ball is just as fascinating. Seattle’s defense was historically dominant this season, leading the league in defensive DVOA with an almost unfathomable weighted mark of -28.5%. They overwhelmed nearly every offense they faced, and very few quarterbacks were able to find sustained success. Only five quarterbacks produced a positive EPA per dropback against Seattle in a single game this season, and only two cleared the 0.05 mark. One was Baker Mayfield. The other was Matthew Stafford.
Stafford has been excellent against the Seahawks, throwing five touchdowns without an interception in two matchups while averaging 7.6 yards per attempt. For context, Seattle allowed just 6.0 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks on average this season. The central question heading into this matchup is whether Stafford has truly cracked the code against this defense, or if Seattle has another adjustment waiting to shut down the Rams’ offense.