From Cameron Boozer and Duke, or the trio atop the Big 12 or even Florida, the NCAA tournament field this season is incredibly top-heavy.
But what about the rest of the field? Even though we are coming off last year’s tournament where the entire Final Four was made up of No. 1 seeds, there’s no reason to think that has to happen again this spring. In fact, there are plenty of legitimate darkhorse candidates out there capable of making a deep run.
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Here’s a look at the best darkhorse candidate eyeing a trip to Indianapolis in each region entering the NCAA tournament.
East: No. 7 UCLA
First matchup: No. 10 UCF
While UCLA didn’t make the Big Ten title game, the Bruins have completely rebounded in recent weeks after a rough start to the season.
UCLA ended the season winning six of its last eight games, three of which came against top 10 opponents. The Bruins got Illinois in overtime back in mid-February, rolled to a 20-point blowout over Nebraska and then got Michigan State in the Big Ten tournament in what was a critical win for the program. Donvan Dent, who went down with a calf injury last week, should be good to go for the NCAA tournament after a very strong second half of the season. He recorded the first ever triple-double in the Big Ten tournament this spring, too.
The Bruins look completely different from the team they were just a few months ago, when they were sitting at 12-6 and just 4-3 in the Big Ten in mid-January. They look like contenders who figured it out at the right time. But the key to making a deep run is going to be getting past UConn in the second round. While that’s not off the table, it’s not going to be easy, either. The Huskies dominated the Big East, but ended up falling to St. John’s in a blowout in the championship game.
But if UCLA keeps rolling, and makes it out of the opening weekend unscathed with plenty of momentum, a matchup with Duke down the road is very possible.
West: No. 7 Miami
First matchup: No. 10 Missouri
Ok, let’s get this out of the way first. The Hurricanes have to open the NCAA tournament against Missouri in St. Louis, which is essentially just a road game. No. 2 Purdue, fresh off its over Michigan win in the Big Ten championship game, is waiting on the other side of the pod.
But ignoring those two key bits of information, the Hurricanes have been playing great lately in what’s been a complete turnaround of the program in Jai Lucas’ second year in charge. They finished in third in the SEC race with several key wins along the way, including against Louisville in the NCAA tournament and against North Carolina last month. All but one of their four bad losses during the ACC regular season slate were by a single possession, too. Virginia only beat them on late free throws after rallying in the second half.
Though the Hurricanes were blown out by Virginia in the ACC semifinals, this team has both been playing much better lately and consistently finds a way to at least stay in games late, if nothing else. Hanging around against a tough Missouri team and the Boilermakers, should it get there, will be critical if the Hurricanes are going to make it out of the first weekend. But, if that gets done, who knows how far Miami can actually run.
South: No. 5 Vanderbilt
First matchup: No. 12 McNeese
The Commodores proved they belong in the conversation last week in Nashville. After an already impressive season, they rolled to a double-digit win over Florida to reach the SEC title game for the first time since 2012. While the Commodores didn’t win the title, they more than held their own in the SEC.
Vanderbilt, after opening the season with 16 straight wins to match the best start in program history, went 26-8 on the year to finish fourth in the SEC after playing 17 Quad 1 opponents — which is among the most of anyone in the country. The Commodores average more than 88 points per game, behind nearly 20 a contest from guard Tyler Tanner, and they are at No. 13 in the NET rankings. That is the second-highest spot by an SEC school behind only Florida.
While McNeese and, presumably, Nebraska aren’t easy opponents, a trip to the second weekend is very doable for Vanderbilt. That could give us a third matchup with the Gators, who hold the No. 1 seed in the region, in the Sweet 16 too. The first time the two teams played, Florida only made it out with a four-point win. If everything keeps playing out the way it has been, Vanderbilt may very quickly find itself just a win away from a trip to the Final Four.
Midwest: No. 3 Virginia
First matchup: No. 14 Wright State
Virginia is a No. 3 seed, so it just barely counts as a “darkhorse” candidate. But the Cavaliers had a dominant season in the ACC, and did so almost largely in the shadows behind Duke.
Virginia went 27-4 in the regular season and finished second in the conference under first-year head coach Ryan Odom. They only lost three times in conference play, and one of those was a triple-overtime rivalry matchup with Virginia Tech back in December. The worst loss was a 26-point blowout at Duke last month, but thankfully the Blue Devils are in another region and are out of the picture. But, Virginia absolutely rebounded from that and came within five points of knocking off Duke in the ACC title game.
This is a very good team, one that finished 12th in the NET rankings and seventh in the country in offensive efficiency. The Cavaliers, though they’ve not won a tournament game since Tony Bennett’s national championship run in 2019, have been led by Thijs De Ridder’s 5.5 points and 6.2 rebounds per game.
But, perhaps most importantly is where the Cavaliers get to start. They’ll open with No. 14 Wright State on Friday, and then can take on either Tennessee or a play-in winner with a Sweet 16 trip on the line. No. 2 Iowa State, while a good team, is absolutely beatable on their half of the bracket, too. Do not be surprised if Virginia, like it has all season, finds a way to remain in the mix in a week or so.