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The Toronto Maple Leafs have consistently played lower-scoring games without Auston Matthews in the lineup, averaging a combined 5.28 goals.
With Matthews sidelined and a strong goaltending matchup to boot, my Maple Leafs vs. Wild predictions expect goals to be hard to come by.
Let’s take a closer look at my NHL picks for Sunday, March 15.
Maple Leafs vs Wild prediction
Maple Leafs vs Wild best bet: Under 6.5 (-130)
Toronto Maple Leafs‘ netminder Anthony Stolarz has quietly played well since returning from injury on January 23.
He ranks 18th in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (+0.21), ahead of notables Connor Hellebuyck, Jake Oettinger, Spencer Knight, and Lukas Dostal.
Minnesota Wild netminder Jesper Wallstedt has been downright elite over the same period, posting a +0.88 GSAE. That’s the fourth-best mark in the NHL.
The goaltending should be good in this game, and the absence of Auston Matthews removes some of the firepower needed to capitalize.
Maple Leafs vs Wild same-game parlay
The Wild rank dead last in shots allowed to defensemen this season. Their numbers are a little better of late, yet they still rank 20th or worse in shots allowed to the left, middle, and right points over their last 20. Oliver Ekman-Larsson should have space to operate and get shots through.
Jake McCabe has averaged 3.3 blocks per game without Auston Matthews in the lineup. Facing sharpshooters like Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy, getting in the shooting lanes will be especially important.
Maple Leafs vs Wild SGP
- Under 6.5
- Oliver Ekman-Larsson Over 1.5 shots
- Jake McCabe Over 2.5 blocked shots
Maple Leafs vs Wild odds
- Moneyline: Maple Leafs +190 | Wild -230
- Puck Line: Maple Leafs +1.5 (-120) | Wild -1.5 (+100)
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (-115) | Under 6.5 (-105)
Maple Leafs vs Wild trend
Five of Toronto’s past six games without Auston Matthews have gone Under the number. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Wild.
How to watch Maple Leafs vs Wild
| Location | Grand Casino Arena, St. Paul, MN |
| Date | Sunday, March 15, 2026 |
| Puck drop | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT, HBO Max, SNO |
Maple Leafs vs Wild latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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