Don’t ask me. I don’t know. Nor does anyone spouting rock-hard opinions in recent weeks about Malik Willis with little more than scant and seductive game film.
They’ve never seen him practice, study, work, lead, improve, interact with teammates, arrive on time — or not — and develop on a daily basis like new Miami Dolphins general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan and coach Jeff Hafley did the past two years in Green Bay with the Packers.
Sullivan and Hafley know more about Willis than any quarterback they’ll ever choose for the Dolphins.
That doesn’t mean Sullivan, whose decision this is, chooses Willis.
It means he has all the information in what will be his first step, one way or another, toward building a team and not just cleaning up a toxic mess left him. You know the inheritance: Salary-cap hell. More than $200 million in dead-cap money. An empty defense.
But this offense can be good if the quarterback is good. If Willis is that guy, Sullivan probably has to be creative starting Monday with the NFL’s tampering period ahead of the official start of free agency on Wednesday. Say, package a second-round pick with the dearly departing Tua Tagovailoa’s contract to free up money. Maybe a third-round pick and lesser money?
Let’s be clear: If Sullivan thinks Willis can be a top quarterback, he goes after him hard. Forget this stuff about building up other positions or being patient. You only get so many swings at this position. Ask predecessor Chris Grier. He spent years passing on Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, picking Josh Rosen, then opting for Tagovailoa over Justin Herbert.
There’s the short answer to a lost decade. Go back further to Jay Fiedler over Trent Green, Daunte Culpepper over Drew Brees, and tackle Jake Long over Matt Ryan, and you see how this franchise has walked in the wilderness for a quarter century.
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Dolphins fans are so skittish about quarterback decisions by now the common sentiment is to let seventh-rounder Quinn Ewers compete with similar, low-cost names this year, lose a lot of games and draft one next spring.
That assumes everything lines up next offseason. The Dolphins have wasted years trying to trick tomorrow like that. Again, you only get so many good swings for a quarterback. Is Willis one of those swings?
He has shown the arm strength, foot speed and mental capacity to win. But he’s a not-ideal 6 foot 1 and has thrown only 155 NFL passes. You can anecdotally bend that lack of experience any way you want just in the organization that shaped Sullivan’s thinking.
Brett Favre only threw four passes (and was intercepted twice) when Green Bay traded the 17th pick to Atlanta for him. He’s in the Hall of Fame. Mark Brunell threw all of 27 passes in Green Bay before taking a young Jacksonville franchise to two AFC championship games.
Then there were good backups who never graduated to good starters: Ty Detmer, Aaron Brooks, Matt Flynn and Brent Hundley who didn’t make the leap from backup to starter. And what of a middle-of-the-road dweller like Matt Hasselbeck? He had a good career when made a starter, not a great one.
The Dolphins aren’t alone with insider information on Willis. New Arizona Cardinals coach Mike LaFleur is the brother of Green Bay coach Matt LaFleur. Offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, who the Dolphins initially hired as their quarterback coach, was quarterback coach for Willis’s two seasons in Green Bay.
That means Willis knows Arizona and the Dolphins, too. He worked daily in Green Bay with Hackett on offense. But he did so as the scout team quarterback against Hafley’s defense, too. Some weeks Hafley surely had Willis throw deep to simulate an opposing quarterback. Other weeks he wanted him to be mobile or throw quick strikes. So, he’s seen Willis do it all. Or not.
There’s always some dart-throwing involved in choosing a quarterback. There’s less of than normal here considering Sullivan and Hafley have been embedded with Willis for two years.
Some fans say the Dolphins must hold onto every draft pick in this rebuild. Answer this: Would Willis be worth the Dolphins’ 11th pick if in this draft? If so, then even with a more expensive contract, is he worth packaging with a second- or third-round pick with Tua’s contract to free up some money?
That’s Sullivan’s decision. It’s not a light or easy one. But it’s the first decision toward getting a top-flight quarterback — or not, as the case may be — that starts to define the new Dolphins.