I can’t truthfully say that at the beginning of the season I thought we’d still be writing these key to victory articles this late into the season, but here we are. The Broncos keep proving everyone wrong, and they’ll have even more doubters heading into this penultimate game that they get to play at home.
It’s a rivalry renewed this weekend as Denver and New England have met many times before in the playoffs. Included in their 55-game all-time series against each other (that Denver leads 31-24) are five previous playoff matchups, three of which were Divisional Round games, and the last two have been AFC Championship games. And, of course, Denver won them both. The Patriots are 0-4 all-time when having to play in Denver in a playoff game.
History leans in favor of the Broncos, but what do they have to do on Sunday to make sure their perfect home record remains intact?
1. Keep the running backs involved all game
While Bo Nix had an incredible game on Saturday, both on the ground and through the air, the Broncos should not have needed to rely on him as much as they did. They had success in the run game in the first and a little into the second quarter, but then Payton just stopped calling those plays.
Jaleel McLaughlin has been surprisingly good between the tackles and has been a decent filler for J.K. Dobbins. R.J. Harvey has been incredible in the open field. And while those opportunities usually come through the passing game, that’s not that big of a deal. Sean Payton loves using swing passes and screens as an extension of the run game, so they need to lean into R.J. Harvey in this department. When targeted, Harvey has the highest passer rating among rookies this season with a rating of 120.6. The second-highest is Colston Loveland at 107.7.
And the offensive line was opening up plenty of rushing lanes against the Bills.
With Dobbins officially being activated off of the IR, maybe this run game will get a massive boost on Sunday.
2. Hit Drake Maye as often as possible
The New England pass blocking has been awful so far in the NFL Playoffs. Against the Chargers they gave up five sacks and Maye had two fumbles, losing one of them. Against the Texans they gave up another five sacks and Maye had four fumbles, losing two of them. Both Odafe Oweh, for Los Angeles, and Will Anderson Jr., for Houston registered three sacks and two forced fumbles.
In no slight to those players, Nik Bonitto, Jonathan Cooper, and this Broncos pass rush is just better than what those other two teams have to offer. Bonitto finished the regular season with two more sacks than Anderson and 6.5 more sacks than Oweh. Bonitto has the second-fastest get off in the league and Cooper has the fourth-fastest. The rookie Will Campbell, while a solid talent, has been a glorified traffic cone this postseason. Denver must take advantage of this and possibly abandon their strategy of boxing in the quarterback, rather than going for sacks. Maye is a threat not to be taken lightly, but he is not nearly as dangerous on the ground as Josh Allen.
Don’t let Maye get into a rhythm. Force him to make bad decisions so this defense can keep generating turnovers.
3. Win the turnover battle
Speaking of turnovers.
Much of this burden will fall on the shoulders of Jarrett Stidham. He has to avoid the risky throws and, while not playing vanilla, keep the ball safe and out of the hands of the New England defense. The Patriots boast a strong offense and if Denver finds themselves in a hole, especially one in the first half, it will be tough to dig out of it.
And on the other side of the ball, the only reason the Broncos were able to keep the Bills out of the endzone was off of turnovers. The Bills did not punt a single time last week in regulation or in overtime. Every possession ended with an interception, fumble, field goal, or touchdown. This is not necessarily a sustainable brand of defense. But at the same time, if the Broncos can force Allen and the Bills to make so many egregious mistakes, they can do the same to the Patriots.
The defense has to give the offense as many chances as possible to put points on the board. And short fields will be at a premium on Sunday.