The sting of the men’s tournament exit is still fresh. A turnover-fueled, 19-point loss to Iowa State is a tough pill for the Big Blue Nation to swallow. But in March, the page turns quickly. Now, the ladies have everyone’s undivided attention, and they should. They have been tremendous this year.
Kenny Brooks and company are set to take on West Virginia at 5 PM on Monday on ESPN2. The Mountaineers are fast, aggressive, and dangerous. If the Wildcats want to keep their postseason dreams alive and move on to the next round, they have to execute in three critical areas.
Here is the blueprint for a Kentucky victory and a trip to the Sweet 16 for the first time in a decade.
Key #1: Protect the basketball at all costs
You are probably sick of hearing about turnovers after watching the men struggle with them yesterday, but the reality is that West Virginia is going to try to replicate that exact same nightmare.
The Mountaineers are absolute pests defensively, forcing an average of 22 turnovers per game. Kentucky has shown they can get loose with the ball; it was the defining factor that cost them the game against Vanderbilt at home, and it has haunted them in several other close matchups this season. Looking at the season stats, the Cats average 12.7 turnovers a game, but they have 9 games with 16 or more turnovers. Against West Virginia’s pressure, that number can spiral out of control in a hurry. Job number one is simple: value the basketball, make strong passes, and do not let the Mountaineers speed up the offense. Easier said than done, but it is a key.
Key #2: Dominate the War on the Glass
This is where Kentucky’s size has to neutralize West Virginia’s speed. The Mountaineers average a respectable 36.6 rebounds per game, but Kentucky has the edge on paper, pulling down 40.6 boards a night.
To win this game, that paper advantage has to translate into unrelenting effort on the hardwood. The Cats need their frontcourt to dominate. Clara Strack (10.1 rebounds) and Teonni Key (7.3 rebounds) both need to be hunting double-doubles. Furthermore, Amelia Hassett needs to chip in and do the dirty work in the paint. If Kentucky can outwork West Virginia and finish the game +7 on the boards, they will control the tempo and limit second-chance points. That will offset some of the turnovers that will surely happen.
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Key #3: Find a Spark Off the Bench
Kentucky doesn’t boast the deepest rotation in the tournament, with its core six players chewing up the vast majority of the minutes. But in a high-stakes, high-pressure tournament setting, relying solely on the starters is a recipe for fatigue, and we have seen that already this year in the loss to South Carolina at home.
The Wildcats desperately need Kaelyn Carroll, Lexi Blue, or Jordan Obi to step up and push into double figures. Obi will get the most minutes, as usual, so she is most likely to do so. More importantly, they need Carroll to provide highly productive minutes just to give the starters a breather without the offense stalling. Blue hasn’t seen the floor much this season (averaging just 6.7 minutes), but if she can come in and provide two to three solid, mistake-free minutes, it would be massive for the rotation.
If Kentucky can squeeze 15 points out of the bench, you have to feel incredibly good about their chances of advancing.
I really believe this team wins this game as long as they don’t turn it over, even on the road.
Prediction Kentucky 77, West Virginia 69