While many players made it through the free agency period with their fantasy football value intact, they’ll still need to survive the NFL Draft before we can have confidence in them moving forward.
Let’s take a look at 10 players who are most at risk heading into the draft.
Tony Pollard, Titans
This year’s clear-cut top running back prospect, Jeremiyah Love, is expected to go off the board somewhere inside the first seven picks, which means his presence looms large over several backfields.
Even though Adam Schefter doesn’t expect Love to be selected by the Titans (fourth overall) or Giants (fifth overall), I still believe both teams are firmly in the mix for his services.
Pollard has been a solid starter for the Titans, topping 1,200 scrimmage yards each of the past two years since joining the club. However, he turns 29 this offseason and is entering the final year of his contract. The new regime in Tennessee might be looking for a more long-term solution at running back, one who offers a higher ceiling and can help take some of the pressure off quarterback Cam Ward.
Fantasy outlook: If Love is the Titans’ pick, Pollard’s value would be crushed unless he’s traded. But if the team passes on Love, Pollard will become a sneaky high-end fantasy RB3 with the potential to reemerge as a top-20 option at the position if new OC Brian Daboll can improve this offense.
Pollard did finish last season strong, with at least 95 scrimmage yards in four straight games down the stretch, including the eighth most fantasy points among RBs during the most important part of the fantasy calendar from Weeks 14 to 17.
Cam Skattebo, Giants
In addition to recovering from a devastating injury in October that involved a tibia fracture, ruptured deltoid ligament and dislocated ankle, Skattebo also has to worry about his team investing first-round draft capital in a more accomplished running back prospect like Love.
It’s unfortunate, considering Skattebo was just hitting his stride as a rookie before the season-ending injury. Last year’s fourth-round pick was the RB6 in fppg over his last six outings and saw bell-cow usage with 22 touches per game over his final four starts. Even with that kind of production and the overall impact his personality had on the team, life is tough for players drafted on Day 3 — especially when a new coaching staff arrives before their sophomore campaign.
Fantasy outlook: If Skattebo can get cleared before Week 1, which seems likely, we won’t know if he’s back to form until we see him on the field. As long as he can get back to full health, the 24-year-old has a path to being a fantasy RB2 in an ascending Giants’ offense, but first, he’ll need to avoid hearing Love’s name called when the Giants are on the clock in Round 1.
Rachaad White/Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Commanders
In the Schefter interview mentioned above, he stated that Love going to the Commanders with the seventh overall pick made sense. That certainly would be an exciting development for an offense that’s looking to rebound after a down year during which Jayden Daniels dealt with injuries.
Since then, several veterans have moved on, including Deebo Samuel Sr., Zach Ertz and Chris Rodriguez Jr. — but Washington has filled out its RB depth chart by adding Rachaad White and Jerome Ford to a backfield that already had Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Jeremy McNichols. While those names won’t prevent the Commanders from drafting a prospect of Love’s caliber, the teams picking in front of them in the top 10 might.
Fantasy outlook: If Love is still available when the Commanders are on the clock, they will likely sprint to the podium to hand in their selection. The star rookie is the exact type of playmaker this team needs next to Daniels and would pair nicely with a pass-catching specialist like White. In that scenario, White would still have value as a fantasy flex option with added upside in PPR formats, but Croskey-Merritt’s future would be limited to being an injury-dependent bench stash.
In the event Love doesn’t end up in Washington, White and JCM would become interesting fantasy RB3s to target, in a likely committee that could tilt in either direction depending on how they perform.
Jordan Mason/Aaron Jones Sr., Vikings
Jones restructuring his contract to remain in Minnesota complicates the outlook for this backfield, since he’s still a capable RB despite some obvious decline entering his age-32 season.
That being said, the Vikings need to have a plan in place for his eventual departure and after last season, it doesn’t seem like Mason is the true long-term answer as their lead back.
While the 18th pick overall isn’t high enough to put them in the mix for Love, it won’t be surprising to see the front office use one of their Day 2 picks (49th, 82nd, 97th) on the position. Just keep in mind this isn’t a very deep and talented running back class after Love, so there’s no guarantee a second or third-round rookie would overtake either veteran right away.
Fantasy outlook: It seems almost inevitable that the Vikings will draft someone to help bolster their backfield depth, but it’s hard to project the potential impact that will have without knowing the player and draft capital involved. This is quietly a very good landing spot in an offense that should get an upgrade from the arrival of Kyler Murray and some better injury luck on the offensive line. If the right prospect ends up here, I’ll be targeting that player in all formats, while avoiding Jones and Mason.
However, if the team doesn’t draft anyone until the later rounds, then this will continue to be a frustrating committee with both Jones and Mason being low-ceiling RB3/flex options. Given Jones’ injury history, Mason would be the more enticing fantasy option to target between the two.
Zay Flowers, Ravens
Flowers is coming off a career year with 86 receptions, 1,211 yards, six touchdowns and a WR19 finish while averaging 10.8 fantasy points per game. Though he might not be a typical No. 1 receiver, he’s proven he can operate as Lamar Jackson’s top target by leading the team in receiving three straight seasons since entering the league.
The 25-year-old also seemed locked into that role when it appeared as though the Ravens were trading their next two first-round picks for Maxx Crosby, since the team would then lack the high-end draft capital to bring in an elite talent at the position. Unfortunately, things change quickly in the NFL and with that trade not being finalized, the Ravens now hold onto their 14th overall selection, which puts them in prime territory to get one of the top receiver prospects in this class.
Fantasy outlook: Baltimore has a lot of directions they could go in Round 1, perhaps even trading down to acquire more picks and choosing from the next tier of wideouts available in the late first or early second. One of the reasons Flowers has been a viable fantasy starter and topped 1,000 yards in back-to-back campaigns is due to a lack of significant target competition. Any addition at that spot would put his ceiling outlook in jeopardy and move him down from the top 20 receivers where he currently stands and into the fantasy WR3 range.
Rashee Rice/Xavier Worthy, Chiefs
Following a disappointing year where they missed the playoffs, the Chiefs have a lot of questions to answer heading into next season. Patrick Mahomes’ health is top of that list as he recovers from a December ACL tear, but who he’ll be throwing to is also up for debate.
Their two recent early-round receiver picks haven’t exactly worked out as planned, with Rashee Rice continuing to deal with off-field issues and Xavier Worthy failing to eclipse 650 yards in either of his NFL campaigns. Travis Kelce staved off retirement for now, but he’s on the downside of his career and will turn 37 during the season.
With receiver contracts reaching astronomical highs and the Chiefs holding three picks inside the top 40 (ninth, 29th and 40th), this might be the time to find Mahomes another weapon in the passing game.
Fantasy outlook: Rice has been productive when available, but he’s also benefited from being schemed up in Andy Reid’s offense. The 25-year-old isn’t the type of wideout who can consistently win on his own and the Chiefs would be wise to seek out a player who fits that mold. If that occurs, Rice’s volume would surely take a hit, pushing him down into the fantasy WR3 range, with Worthy being an even more boom-or-bust flex option.
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If Kansas City doesn’t address the position and elects to stick with what they have for another year, Rice will be a risky WR2 who possesses WR1 upside if he can stay on the field. Worthy in that scenario is still just a WR3/flex option until we see him prove he can be something more at the pro level.
Harold Fannin Jr., Browns
There’s no denying how incredible Fannin Jr. was during his rookie campaign in Cleveland. As a third-round pick, he exceeded every expectation with 72 catches, 731 yards and seven total touchdowns, while averaging the ninth most fantasy points among tight ends.
As thrilled as I am to have him on many dynasty rosters, it’s worth considering the changes that have happened in the Browns organization. A new coaching staff has arrived with Todd Monken at the helm, the offensive line has undergone significant turnover, the quarterback position remains an unknown with Shedeur Sanders and Deshaun Watson potentially competing for the starting job and the team is probably going to draft at least one receiver early with three picks inside the top 40.
Fannin led the Browns in almost every receiving category last year and is well on his way to having a great NFL career. But if the team drafts a receiver with one of their two first-round picks, it’ll lower Fannin’s projections and move him out of consideration to be a potentially elite fantasy tight end.
Fantasy outlook: If the Browns draft a receiver early, it won’t turn Fannin into a player to avoid but it will cause him to fall to the middle of the TE1 range in my rankings. That would make me far less interested in him unless his ADP also comes down significantly.
It’s hard to have faith in the Browns’ passing attack sustaining multiple quality fantasy options, given the state of their quarterback position. Sanders averaged 193 passing yards per game over his seven starts and failed to top 200 yards in five of his last six outings. Meanwhile, Watson hasn’t looked the same since arriving in Cleveland and he’s dealt with countless injuries during that time. We’re also getting further removed from his last full NFL season, which occurred with the Texans in 2020.